I suspewct you are right on target.

2012-01-05T06:54:02.222-08:00

If you look at the side effects of what happens as...

2012-01-04T10:22:28.972-08:00

If you look at the side effects of what happens as a result of all the attention Iowa gets, the candidate of the party not in power generally loses the state in the general election because of all of the negative campaigning. In 2004, with no Republican caucuses necessary because Bush was running for re-election, John Kerry won the Iowa Caucuses and went on to be the Democratic nominee. Iowa, with a slight majority of Democrats, tipped the other way, and Bush carried the state with a margin of a fraction of a percent. In 2000, with Republicans just beginning a battle for the nomination, W won the Iowa caucus, and went on to win the presidency, though he lost the popular vote. Gore carried Iowa because of all the mud slinging the Republicans did during the caucuses.

Eight votes is close, even for a turnout like this one. But with all of the negative campaigning that took place, especially the blistering attacks on Newt Gingrich, I predict that Iowa goes to Obama in the general election.

The GOP is making a strategic error in the focus of their campaigning. The President has claimed that the Republicans aren't focused on fixing the economy, they are focused on denying him a second term. They're almost falling all over themselves to fit themselves into that claim. Regardless of who the nominee is, if that's the direction they pursue, then Obama gets a second term.

Comments on Strong Coffee: Fascination in Iowa

I suspewct you are right on target.

If you look at the side effects of what happens as...